And then there are confounding factors. Seasonality: these viruses are Winter viruses, they come as Winter starts, peak in the bleak mid-Winter, then wane as Winter moves towards Spring. Gompertz curve: the virus follows a particular trajectory, low activity, sudden exponential rise, peak, then gradual decline. This is due to the virus rapidly infecting and causing serious disease in the most susceptible but as it moves through the population there are fewer and fewer new victims, so activity falls away.
You can see both seasonality, and Gompertz curve on the September to January part of the figure in the article.
When this natural decline is observed, ‘triumph’ is declared for lockdowns, masks, vaccination.
But the same trajectory was observed before we had vaccines in places like Sweden where there was no lockdown, no masks. And comparing various territories there is no difference irrespective of what measures were taken, how strict, for how long or when, or levels of vaccination or when the programmes started.
What characterises this whole panicdemic, is the determined way evidence from observation has been ignored.
Jan 31, 2022·edited Jan 31, 2022Liked by SimulationCommander
I suggest adding Iowa to the graph if you can. Iowa has emulated Florida as far as no masks, no more lockdowns and no vax mandates. I would love to see how Iowa compares. It should not be overlooked but it often is. I think people forget it borders Illinois.
And then there are confounding factors. Seasonality: these viruses are Winter viruses, they come as Winter starts, peak in the bleak mid-Winter, then wane as Winter moves towards Spring. Gompertz curve: the virus follows a particular trajectory, low activity, sudden exponential rise, peak, then gradual decline. This is due to the virus rapidly infecting and causing serious disease in the most susceptible but as it moves through the population there are fewer and fewer new victims, so activity falls away.
You can see both seasonality, and Gompertz curve on the September to January part of the figure in the article.
When this natural decline is observed, ‘triumph’ is declared for lockdowns, masks, vaccination.
But the same trajectory was observed before we had vaccines in places like Sweden where there was no lockdown, no masks. And comparing various territories there is no difference irrespective of what measures were taken, how strict, for how long or when, or levels of vaccination or when the programmes started.
What characterises this whole panicdemic, is the determined way evidence from observation has been ignored.
I suggest adding Iowa to the graph if you can. Iowa has emulated Florida as far as no masks, no more lockdowns and no vax mandates. I would love to see how Iowa compares. It should not be overlooked but it often is. I think people forget it borders Illinois.
https://twitter.com/VanVoorheesVII/status/1486037195395932166?s=20&t=UsNqpO4tq9LCcy187sz4Wg
Must have been the masks then?
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/