And then there are confounding factors. Seasonality: these viruses are Winter viruses, they come as Winter starts, peak in the bleak mid-Winter, then wane as Winter moves towards Spring. Gompertz curve: the virus follows a particular trajectory, low activity, sudden exponential rise, peak, then gradual decline. This is due to the virus rapidly infecting and causing serious disease in the most susceptible but as it moves through the population there are fewer and fewer new victims, so activity falls away.
You can see both seasonality, and Gompertz curve on the September to January part of the figure in the article.
When this natural decline is observed, ‘triumph’ is declared for lockdowns, masks, vaccination.
But the same trajectory was observed before we had vaccines in places like Sweden where there was no lockdown, no masks. And comparing various territories there is no difference irrespective of what measures were taken, how strict, for how long or when, or levels of vaccination or when the programmes started.
What characterises this whole panicdemic, is the determined way evidence from observation has been ignored.
You nailed it! There's a reason we 'seasonality theorists' have been able to predict virus movement since the summer of 2020. In spring 2021, the jabmakers literally took credit for spring. But, as you say, we saw the same drastic drop in 2020 without any vaccines at all.
The virus follows the Hope-Simpson predictions, which not only predict WHEN the curves will happen, but WHERE. In places where it's so hot in the summer that people gather indoors, you see a summer spike. (This is presumably the case with South Africa, as I see they have classic 'double hump')
In northern states, the virus for the most part disappears after spring until fall rolls around. In southern states, you see the 'double hump' like they have in South Africa.
Last spring Fauci claimed to have no idea why cases were continuing to drop in Texas during the spring. We were not only explaining this was seasonality, but warning of the summer spike that would hit the sunbelt (and only the sunbelt) once temperatures got hot enough. And that's exactly what happened. Then we said the virus would taper off naturally (no rules) until the winter wave crashed over the whole country. That's exactly what happened.
Nothing we do trumps the seasonality of the virus. Luckily we'll be in a long lull until the summer sunbelt spike -- and by then the politicians should be paying attention to other things.
"In places where it's so hot in the summer that people gather indoors"
Note this is not an alternate 'seasonality' hypothesis, that's mainstream epidemiology. And your own wording here implies that lockdowns would of course work – if people are clustered together less indoors in working places, restaurants etc. then spread would be less.
To get traction in science, you need testable hypotheses of course. You also need physicality – mechanisms how things work. These articles are written as if you have a radical alternative, but these follow-up comments suggest you are accepting the germ theory of disease framing, i.e. a viral agent that jumps from human to human. If this is true, it can't really be possible that "nothing we do trumps the seasonality of the virus". And in fact the radically different outcomes in terms of death and hospitalization of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated are a quick falsification of the idea that "nothing we do trumps".
I think it is the mainstream view that there is probably some environmental/seasonal factors, but you seem to be conflating that with a stronger hypothesis that seasonality is the *only* factor, though in drilling in you seem to acknowledge (above) that things like human proximity are more the driving factors.
Have you been reading along with the many published scientific studies on seasonality? They tend to find what you'd expect in my reading, e.g. (Zoran et al Aug21)
"In conclusion seasonal variability of climate and air pollution parameters can explain some seasonality and important aspects in the COVID-19 disease transmission (Rahimi et al., 2021), but epidemiological measures of social distance are essential"
Do you have a model making specific predictions for say spring and summer? Happy to bookmark and follow along.
Btw, saying "I don't know" when you don't know specifics behind some result or another, as you criticize Fauci for doing, is actually a long-respected scientific approach.
Lockdowns don't work because people still go to work, especially in hospitals, where many people get covid to begin with. As an extreme example, shooting everybody in the face would cut down covid transmission, too, but some things aren't worth the cost. The level of lockdown that could 'work' would basically be welding people in their homes. And even then, the virus is waiting as soon as you lift the lockdowns and let people out.
Most of the predictions that the 'seasonality theorists' have made were on Twitter before I was banned. If you know of a way to download tweets and search them, I'm certain we'd find numerous examples of us predicting virus activity. That's what you're missing. We're not just taking credit now -- we predicted exactly when and where the virus would appear this summer AND this winter. Seasonality may not be the 'only' factor, but it's the factor that trumps everything else we do. That's why places with no rules have curves that look like neighboring places with crazy rules.
We have years and years of data at this point. It all points to the same thing: Virus gonna virus.
I suggest adding Iowa to the graph if you can. Iowa has emulated Florida as far as no masks, no more lockdowns and no vax mandates. I would love to see how Iowa compares. It should not be overlooked but it often is. I think people forget it borders Illinois.
I live in the Iowa Quad Cities a two mile trip across the Mississippi River from IL. Relentless attacks by the skyfallers last winter caused Gov. Reynolds to cave and institute a short lived mask mandate but she quickly recovered her senses and even banned mandates for public institutions. The difference between here and two miles away is legitimately night and day. Thankful to live here but deeply saddened by all restaurants, breweries, shops, etc. I haven't patronized in two years, many of which I couldn't visit again if I wanted to as they didn't survive. Much of IL was already a shit hole but what Pritzger has done since is nothing short of criminal.
And all the 'wisdom' of all the 'leaders' put together couldn't piece together that people will simply travel from IL to your city just across the border.
And then there are confounding factors. Seasonality: these viruses are Winter viruses, they come as Winter starts, peak in the bleak mid-Winter, then wane as Winter moves towards Spring. Gompertz curve: the virus follows a particular trajectory, low activity, sudden exponential rise, peak, then gradual decline. This is due to the virus rapidly infecting and causing serious disease in the most susceptible but as it moves through the population there are fewer and fewer new victims, so activity falls away.
You can see both seasonality, and Gompertz curve on the September to January part of the figure in the article.
When this natural decline is observed, ‘triumph’ is declared for lockdowns, masks, vaccination.
But the same trajectory was observed before we had vaccines in places like Sweden where there was no lockdown, no masks. And comparing various territories there is no difference irrespective of what measures were taken, how strict, for how long or when, or levels of vaccination or when the programmes started.
What characterises this whole panicdemic, is the determined way evidence from observation has been ignored.
You nailed it! There's a reason we 'seasonality theorists' have been able to predict virus movement since the summer of 2020. In spring 2021, the jabmakers literally took credit for spring. But, as you say, we saw the same drastic drop in 2020 without any vaccines at all.
In this framing, what does 'seasonality' predict other than curves going up and down and taking credit for them?
Just curious, how did Omicron spike in South African summer and shortly after in North American winter?
The virus follows the Hope-Simpson predictions, which not only predict WHEN the curves will happen, but WHERE. In places where it's so hot in the summer that people gather indoors, you see a summer spike. (This is presumably the case with South Africa, as I see they have classic 'double hump')
In northern states, the virus for the most part disappears after spring until fall rolls around. In southern states, you see the 'double hump' like they have in South Africa.
Last spring Fauci claimed to have no idea why cases were continuing to drop in Texas during the spring. We were not only explaining this was seasonality, but warning of the summer spike that would hit the sunbelt (and only the sunbelt) once temperatures got hot enough. And that's exactly what happened. Then we said the virus would taper off naturally (no rules) until the winter wave crashed over the whole country. That's exactly what happened.
Nothing we do trumps the seasonality of the virus. Luckily we'll be in a long lull until the summer sunbelt spike -- and by then the politicians should be paying attention to other things.
https://simulationcommander.substack.com/p/seasonality-a-story-in-pictures
https://simulationcommander.substack.com/p/seasonality-in-pictures-part-ii
These go over it in more detail.
Appreciate the response and links.
"In places where it's so hot in the summer that people gather indoors"
Note this is not an alternate 'seasonality' hypothesis, that's mainstream epidemiology. And your own wording here implies that lockdowns would of course work – if people are clustered together less indoors in working places, restaurants etc. then spread would be less.
To get traction in science, you need testable hypotheses of course. You also need physicality – mechanisms how things work. These articles are written as if you have a radical alternative, but these follow-up comments suggest you are accepting the germ theory of disease framing, i.e. a viral agent that jumps from human to human. If this is true, it can't really be possible that "nothing we do trumps the seasonality of the virus". And in fact the radically different outcomes in terms of death and hospitalization of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated are a quick falsification of the idea that "nothing we do trumps".
I think it is the mainstream view that there is probably some environmental/seasonal factors, but you seem to be conflating that with a stronger hypothesis that seasonality is the *only* factor, though in drilling in you seem to acknowledge (above) that things like human proximity are more the driving factors.
Have you been reading along with the many published scientific studies on seasonality? They tend to find what you'd expect in my reading, e.g. (Zoran et al Aug21)
"In conclusion seasonal variability of climate and air pollution parameters can explain some seasonality and important aspects in the COVID-19 disease transmission (Rahimi et al., 2021), but epidemiological measures of social distance are essential"
Do you have a model making specific predictions for say spring and summer? Happy to bookmark and follow along.
Btw, saying "I don't know" when you don't know specifics behind some result or another, as you criticize Fauci for doing, is actually a long-respected scientific approach.
Thanks for the comment!
Lockdowns don't work because people still go to work, especially in hospitals, where many people get covid to begin with. As an extreme example, shooting everybody in the face would cut down covid transmission, too, but some things aren't worth the cost. The level of lockdown that could 'work' would basically be welding people in their homes. And even then, the virus is waiting as soon as you lift the lockdowns and let people out.
Most of the predictions that the 'seasonality theorists' have made were on Twitter before I was banned. If you know of a way to download tweets and search them, I'm certain we'd find numerous examples of us predicting virus activity. That's what you're missing. We're not just taking credit now -- we predicted exactly when and where the virus would appear this summer AND this winter. Seasonality may not be the 'only' factor, but it's the factor that trumps everything else we do. That's why places with no rules have curves that look like neighboring places with crazy rules.
We have years and years of data at this point. It all points to the same thing: Virus gonna virus.
I suggest adding Iowa to the graph if you can. Iowa has emulated Florida as far as no masks, no more lockdowns and no vax mandates. I would love to see how Iowa compares. It should not be overlooked but it often is. I think people forget it borders Illinois.
I live in the Iowa Quad Cities a two mile trip across the Mississippi River from IL. Relentless attacks by the skyfallers last winter caused Gov. Reynolds to cave and institute a short lived mask mandate but she quickly recovered her senses and even banned mandates for public institutions. The difference between here and two miles away is legitimately night and day. Thankful to live here but deeply saddened by all restaurants, breweries, shops, etc. I haven't patronized in two years, many of which I couldn't visit again if I wanted to as they didn't survive. Much of IL was already a shit hole but what Pritzger has done since is nothing short of criminal.
I’m a native Iowan so I’ve been paying attention to your Governor who has been pretty darn impressive through this.
And all the 'wisdom' of all the 'leaders' put together couldn't piece together that people will simply travel from IL to your city just across the border.
https://imgur.com/a/rhjjweY
Surprise! They also follow the trend line.
You can filter for any states you like and look at cases, deaths, or hospitalizations here: https://public.tableau.com/views/CovidDashboardsbyTCoddington/KeyMetricsoverTime?:language=en-US&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
Best viewed on a larger screen
Thank you! Quite lovely and useful 👏👏👏
Excellent thank you
https://twitter.com/VanVoorheesVII/status/1486037195395932166?s=20&t=UsNqpO4tq9LCcy187sz4Wg
Why, it's like the rules don't even matter!
Must have been the masks then?
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/