Did the Vax Pass Save Chicago?

The answer won't surprise you

I got an email from a loyal reader who asks “Is it possible that the vax pass drove down hospitalizations in Chicago?” It’s a very good question and one I should have addressed during the last update.

As a reminder, here’s what Chicago’s hospitalization curve looks like:

If we go onto Chicago’s official page we see that the rolling average of Chicago’s hospitalizations peaked on January 12th at just under 1600. This is nine days after the vax pass was established. It SEEMS like it’s too early for the pass to make a difference, but just to make sure let’s check on the overall numbers in Illinois, which DOESN’T have a state-wide vax pass.

Just like above, when you interact with the website you can see the day covid hospitalizations peaked in Illinois — it’s January 12th, the same day that the rolling average peaked in Chicago.

Once again, we see that ‘the rules’ don’t move the needle with regards to covid. Long, long ago when I still thought this was about data, I used a comparison of midwest states with vastly different rules but similar curves to prove this. Here’s what that chart looks like today:

Without the labels, could you even tell which states had lots of covid rules and which had hardly any? Could you ever?