"This will be true regardless of the covid rules that a place has"
There are two different questions – when will the spikes happen, and how big. The point of interventions generally is to lessen the size of the spike. Conceptually a given spike will the people who match a profile based on their availability to be infected and immunity sta…
"This will be true regardless of the covid rules that a place has"
There are two different questions – when will the spikes happen, and how big. The point of interventions generally is to lessen the size of the spike. Conceptually a given spike will the people who match a profile based on their availability to be infected and immunity status in the window of the infection. So just saying there will be a spike and it will go up and down is evading the testability requirement for this aspect of the model.
The sun belt prediction is testable.
I just spot checked Arizona out of curiosity, their larger spikes have both been in December, with a mild rise in August – overall more consistent with the epidemiology models of new variant waves (Delta in August, Omicron in Dec).
...exactly as predicted by Hope-Simpson. The chart is here if you haven't seen it already. Every state follows the predicted path. The rules make no difference at all.
Eye-balling charts is infamously error prone. You're arguing the brief alignment of slope in July proves seasonality dominates? If you carry hospitalization curve forward in 2021 there's a huge spike in September that didn't happen in 2020. This curve is more like an easy falsification than a confirmation of 'only seasonality matters'.
The alignment of all the slopes everywhere align all the time. You're looking at the US as one giant piece but it's not. Regions move together. Each state follows its own prediction and path based on where they are.
This is how, once again, we've been predicting virus activity for the last 20 months. I'm sorry you weren't around to see it.
"The alignment of all the slopes everywhere align all the time"
I just pointed out that they do not, and provided a link showing that they do not.
"You're looking at the US as one giant piece but it's not"
And yet looking at the US was previously convincing enough that you had a post dedicated to looking at the US hospitalization curve which you shared with me as validation of theory – "exactly as predicted by Hope-Simpson. The chart is here if you haven't seen it already".
"This will be true regardless of the covid rules that a place has"
There are two different questions – when will the spikes happen, and how big. The point of interventions generally is to lessen the size of the spike. Conceptually a given spike will the people who match a profile based on their availability to be infected and immunity status in the window of the infection. So just saying there will be a spike and it will go up and down is evading the testability requirement for this aspect of the model.
The sun belt prediction is testable.
I just spot checked Arizona out of curiosity, their larger spikes have both been in December, with a mild rise in August – overall more consistent with the epidemiology models of new variant waves (Delta in August, Omicron in Dec).
...exactly as predicted by Hope-Simpson. The chart is here if you haven't seen it already. Every state follows the predicted path. The rules make no difference at all.
https://simulationcommander.substack.com/p/great-news-seasonality-still-works
Eye-balling charts is infamously error prone. You're arguing the brief alignment of slope in July proves seasonality dominates? If you carry hospitalization curve forward in 2021 there's a huge spike in September that didn't happen in 2020. This curve is more like an easy falsification than a confirmation of 'only seasonality matters'.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-hospital-admissions-covid-per-million?country=~USA
The alignment of all the slopes everywhere align all the time. You're looking at the US as one giant piece but it's not. Regions move together. Each state follows its own prediction and path based on where they are.
This is how, once again, we've been predicting virus activity for the last 20 months. I'm sorry you weren't around to see it.
"The alignment of all the slopes everywhere align all the time"
I just pointed out that they do not, and provided a link showing that they do not.
"You're looking at the US as one giant piece but it's not"
And yet looking at the US was previously convincing enough that you had a post dedicated to looking at the US hospitalization curve which you shared with me as validation of theory – "exactly as predicted by Hope-Simpson. The chart is here if you haven't seen it already".