It’s been obvious since (at least) last year’s summer sunbelt spike that covid is a seasonal virus and nothing we do changes that. Yet last summer we had the ‘leaders’ blaming ‘idiot’ anti-maskers in the South for their summer wave. Then, as predicted by the seasonality theorists (and more importantly, Hope-Simpson), the winter wave crashed over the whole country.
You’d think that would be enough for people to learn, but this year the ‘experts’ simply blamed ‘idiot’ anti-vaxxers in the South for their summer wave. Doubling down on the incorrect once again. I’m sensing a pattern!
If you’re not using the HHS hospital utilization page, bookmark it now! This is one of the best resources to actually see what’s happening on the ground. Luckily for me, I had a few screenshots from last year and now we can compare them to this year!
First up: Mid-July (2020 on the left, 2021 on the right)
Looks pretty similar. But we have more! Here’s early August:
Pretty amazing! Both years Florida was ‘the worst’ in early August, but we can also see the virus creeping up the west coast. Moving on to 10-9:
Here most of the country is in the autumn lull. The coldest states are already starting their uptick because the weather turns there first. Now 10-13:
Once again, extremely similar. The virus has moved into the cold north and away from the (cooling off) South. Let’s check in a week later:
And one more datapoint, from 10-24 (today):
Florida’s trip from ‘worst’ state to ‘white’ state is complete. The virus has settled in the cold norther states.
If you were wondering why the ‘leaders’ have stopped talking about Florida, this is it. They stayed open, no mask rules, kids in school, huge crowds at sporting events, and the spike dissipated anyway. Just like last year.
Bonus sneak peak into the future, from 11-17-20:
Now maybe this is a crazy idea, but what if we start listening to people who have correctly been predicting virus activity for 16 months now, instead of people who say stuff like this: I'm really not quite sure (why cases are dropping in Texas in the spring)
I guess it DOES sound crazy when you say it out loud…….
Yep, it's this.
“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
"Now maybe this is a crazy idea, but what if we start listening to people who have correctly been predicting virus activity for 16 months now.." Because it puts a giant kink in a perfect profit scheme. Almost like you live in a world where facts matter! *smirk*