From The Guardian:
New York City and some north-eastern US states appear to be seeing rapid decreases in their numbers of Covid-19 cases in recent days, raising the possibility that the Omicron wave has now already peaked in some parts of America.
In New York City the rolling seven-day average of new cases was less than 28,000 a day on 16 January, down from an average of more than 40,000 on 9 January.
Similar patterns were being observed in the state as a whole and other nearby regions.
This is great news and, once again, exactly what us ‘seasonality theorists’ predicted long ago. It’s not the rules, it’s not the vaccines, it’s not the ‘leadership’, it’s seasonality. Still.
We saw the same exact trend in 2021, and we PROBABLY saw it in 2020 as well, though we had inadequate testing to really see the full picture then.
Note that we’ve been banging the seasonality drum since (at least) summer 2020. At this point we’ve been correctly predicting virus activity for the last 18 or so months. During that time, the ‘leaders’ have only mentioned it right before winter — in other words, when seasonality was scary. Do you want to bet they give credit to mother nature this year? I’m not holding my breath.
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Seasonality must not be allowed to disrupt the "vaccines work" narrative, although it will likely become an essential part of the "get your seasonal boosters!" campaign.
We’re already seeing it in King County WA too. https://kingcounty.gov/depts/health/covid-19/data/key-indicators.aspx