TL;DR:
Since the summer of 2020, it was clear that covid was following Hope-Simpson projections across America and across the world. One of my first articles on Substack discussed this phenomenon.
Simply following Hope-Simpson is how the ‘seasonality theorists’ were able to more correctly predict virus activity than all the ‘experts’ put together — who were busy blaming ‘anti-mask’ Southerners in summer 2020 and ‘anti-vax’ Southerners in summer 2021.
Although covid data was all over the map, one measurement was fairly consistent across the board: hospitalizations. That’s why I settled on using this HHS page to gather data over time and highlight how the virus was moving according to Hope-Simpson projections.
But over this summer we saw some worrying trends. Instead of the virus clearing out in the northern states during the summer, hospitalizations remained stubbornly high.
At the time this was only one data point, and obviously needed much more evidence before we could claim anything conclusively. Well, we now have some more of that data! In this series of pictures, we have 2020 on the left, 2021 on the right, and 2022 below them both.
We start in early October. The virus is moving out of the south and into the colder northern states (the REALLY cold northern states). Note that in 2020, the northeast is completely “white”, and in 2021 they’ve got one of the lowest hospitalization rates in the country.
Fast forward to the 2022 snapshot, and we see troublesome news. The map isn’t much changed from our September data. Although the virus has moved out of the South as expected, hospitalizations in the northeast remain relatively high.
As we move later into October, we expect the virus to continue to move into the very cold states as we saw in 2020 and 2021: (Note: Previous versions had 10/20 data here, but I noticed an error in this year’s screenshot, which used ICU % instead of total hospitalization %. To keep the apples/apples comparison, I’ve used a 10/13 datapoint instead. The main point still holds.)
And while there’s a small uptick in virus activity in the cold states, the northeast remains a trouble spot. As if the people there just can’t shake covid, for some reason……..
Finally, we get into late October. At this point in 2020 and 2021, the coldest states are being hammered, with the northeast (and west coast) still holding out for a few more weeks.
(At this point, no points for knowing what comes next)
The northeast isn’t getting any better, and now we’re heading into the months in which that region of the country struggles with the virus. This higher covid baseline portends a nasty winter ahead, and NOT ‘for the unvaccinated’.
I should mention that covid remains a minor issue for the healthcare system. Nearly 25% of our beds are open, with less than 4% being taken by covid-positive patients. That’s good news AND what we expect from a pandemic — each wave is smaller than the last because fewer people remain susceptible.
UNLESS we rendered people permanently susceptible by training their bodies to react to the virus in a way that does them no good. And that sure seems to be the case. Doc Brown goes over more data (from Ethical Skeptic!) today, and even the mainstream media is starting to wonder why white people are suddenly dying of covid more than black people……..
Gotta be climate change.
Important Editor's Note!! The first post used 10/20 data, but I noticed an error in this year’s screenshot, which used ICU % instead of total hospitalization %. To keep the apples/apples comparison, I’ve used a 10/13 datapoint instead. The main point still holds.
Well done, thanks. 👍🏽