Note: This is written from the viewpoint of Austrian economics, which many people with very impressive-sounding degrees will tell you is wildly wrong. If you read some of the links interspersed throughout the links, you can hear from the 'experts' on the other side (they're the ones saying there'll be no inflation just because we printed a bunch of cash).
Feb 2021 “That is what I think is the big concern right now, the unanchoring of inflation expectations. An important element in inflation are wages and people getting higher wages during a time of still very high unemployment and still a lot of slack in the economy,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“That would be a sign that an inflation process has begun, but we see no indication of that whatsoever. What we see is the perception of inflation being fueled by energy prices.”
(May 2021) “I don’t believe that inflation will be an issue. But if it becomes an issue, we have tools to address it,” Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “It’s spread out quite evenly over eight to 10 years. So, the boost to demand is moderate,” she said of the proposed spending.
--------------------------------------
Sounds like a gaggle of covid experts explaining how the rules make the difference and not
“We remain positive but once we get to the end of this year and early next year, and we’ve worked through the supply chain bottlenecks and demand has normalized, as the economy opened up, we don’t think it’s a sustained source of inflation over the medium term,” said Blerina Uruci, senior U.S. economist at Barclays.
Uruci expects core inflation to reach 2.3% by May but then it could be below 2% in the second half of the year.
(Coincindentally typing this while wearing my "Hayek Rocks!" ((in the KISS font)) t-shirt 😄)
Being short dollars and long real assets and commodities is absolutely the smartest move at the moment, but we also took a look at our crystal ball the end of 2021 and decided to short the markets. It's been a bumpy ride, but a profitable one so far. It definitely takes nerves of steel to be a bear, even when the signs are all there.
Just own Large Cap US and Foreign stocks. It will accomplish the same thing. Large Corporations could care less about inflation. They raised their prices while their debt and other liabilities become less expensive to honor.
I’m from Venezuela originally, moved to Houston on Dec 2000 and became an American citizen in 2013. I’m very grateful to this beautiful country and its people for the opportunity to work and raise our children here. I love the USA as much as I love Venezuela. What’s going on right now here is heart braking to say the least, all I can say is we have to fight it, there’s no other option, we can’t not let it happen here. I’ve been very vocal about it to all our friends, I’ve explained how I noticed that our schools here push the romanticizing of socialism every where they can, how our youth is being brain washed in academia right in front of us all while we ourselves finance this none sense. I just can’t believe it is happening all over again and that there’s still people with their heads buried in the sand worrying about the wrong stuff.
Thank you very much! Voices like yours are so important because most Americans have no idea what living under such a system is like. And I'm afraid by the time they figure it all out, it will be too late!
Trust me, I won’t shut up about it, my kids are well aware of the propaganda because we explained to them as soon as they could understand the concept of what government, politics and social issues are, and of course as much as they allowed us to talk about it, you know how much young people are bored by such topics, and who can blame them right? But that didn’t stopped my husband and I from talking to our children.
I have hopes, this is a great country with plenty of good people even though sometimes we feel that things are going in the complete wrong direction, at least we’re talking about it here, and I think more and more people are slowly but surely waking up, let’s keep our chin up and keep on doing everything we can
Thank you for being my fellow citizen, M. Winny A. You, and especially what you say about your children, give me hope. I have not attempted to counter the Socialist propaganda/indoctrination that publicly (and daily) bathes my own three teen-agers, but inculcated instead a healthy skepticism of all things, and an attitude of free-thinking based on a constant INDEPENDENT search for the essence of things. I know that, at this stage in their lives, my politics would bore them, and, worse, my manner would come across as its own propaganda. When all is said and done, they will have to choose for themselves, and I fear I would just get in the way. But they ARE skeptical, so I have hope and confidence..
The only big issue you missed is that, without any fanfare, the Fed has been buying debt at a rate pf $1.2B every month. It is prohibited by law from buying US debt directly from the US Treasury, so with a wink and a nod it waits until the debt is bought by someone else. THEN it buys the US Debt. This assures the market that there is a ready and willing buyer for any debt the US creates. Neat trick if you can get away with it.
This works safely because we have the world's reserve currency, which has no competitors . . . yet. I mean, who would trade the dollar for the Swiss Franc, the British Pound, the Chinese Yuan, the Euro or Bitcoin? Or a basket of the foregoing?
Very great point. We have the reserve currency....for now. But what if all those suckers decide they're tired of holding dollars to buy oil? The flood of dollars back into 'our' economy would be extremely dangerous.
I understand the USD is on the brink of losing its reserve currency status, as the petrodollar trade was refused by Saudi Arabia last year in lieu of BRICS currency. Say it isn’t so.
"...had to cash in 42.5 ounces of Gold (at $288)...35 ounces of the pure (at $415)...13.5 oz of Gold (@$1400/oz)...12.1 oz of Gold for me (@$1725/oz)."
"Notice how the car price in dollars is always higher, while the car price in Gold ounces is always lower."
No, *not* always with respect to the gold. Just always in your particular circumstances.
The validity of your argument depends on the price of gold going up perpetually. What if all those gold prices had happened in reverse order? (See: Johnny Carson and Ed McMahon) Every one of your cars would've cost more in gold than the previous one.
Plenty of ups and downs in the price of gold (see? even gold has a *price* measured in...dollars) over the past 100 years in this chart:
Actually, the validity of my argument depends on the devaluation of the dollar - which, in today's environment is a given....are there ups & downs in gold price, sure, can gold go down over weeks, months, years - yes absolutely. But when you start talking decades & centuries, gold will always win against paper.... compare that hundred year chart of gold you linked to the hundred year chart of the dollar - they are not even in the same realm.
Indeed they're not in the same realm, but I wasn't defending the dollar, I was questioning the practical argument in defense of gold.
I don't expect to live centuries (or even one; neither will most of us). So the reality of the long-term value of gold doesn't matter nearly as much as the vagaries imposed on gold's value in the short-term, by government.
Very good MICRO-analysis, M. !Andrew the Great! (I should have added "the Great" to my middle name!), as far as it goes.
However, the long-term price of gold, measured in FIAT DOLLARS (this is key), is sure to increase in the long-run (NOT necessarily the short, of course), because Statists are sure to de-value their debt (i.e. print FIAT DOLLARS) on their whims.
Second, that the price of gold is today measured in dollars is of NO consequence. An economic system using ounces of gold as the so-called reserve currency could easily be imagined, because that is de facto what we had until we stopped pegging the value of the dollar to gold itself (i.e. the gold standard), just so we could "save the poor" (read: gouge the poor) by inflating the supply of FIAT DOLLARS. Yes, Statist logic is circular.
Finally, and most importantly, forget everything I just said, and remember the MACRO:
The State can't print more gold, making GOLD the perfect store of value for we anti-Statists, since it retards the debt-financed growth of the State relative to the wealth-producing private sector. The dollar symbol was chosen because it is an upper-case U super-imposed over an upper-case S, for "U.S. Dollar." We should have skipped using the word "dollar," and gone straight to "ozG" (no convenient symbol, see?). That way, the Federal govt. would have had to borrow something REAL instead of FIAT, and therefore creatable on a whim. The State steals ("borrows") from us without our consent, and the ignorant among us not only raise no fuss, they stick their slavish hands out , palms up to the State, and the State "magnanimously" "gives" to the ignorant that which the State stole from them in the first place. The ignorant and complacent are today legion, and the State has taken advantage.
Alternatively, a fiat currency COULD work, but ONLY if the People could tell the State that it CANNOT BORROW OR PRINT ANYTHING. The Statists (both inside and out of the State) would not then devalue their own fiat money (the money in their OWN INDIVIDUAL pockets) by ACTUALLY printing more of it. The supply of currency (i.e. the notes, backed by REAL gold printed for greasing the commerce, gold being rather heavier than paper) could then be set to the population, ZERO-ING price inflation (currency deflation) forever in one fell swoop. Of course, actual things (like cars) would go up and down in value as they should, according to supply and demand, setting a market price (signal to producers/sellers/corporations) and informing the two parties to a trade, whose sole judgment is key, instead of the third-party State having any say. Banks, SOLELY IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, would then lend (print) notes ONLY at their owner's risk, and not the general public's. Obviously, there could be NO public bail-outs (including of banks), no matter the size of the bankrupt entity, and personal bankruptcy should be handled by future attachments, private charity, and insurance, a low level of which might be required by law in the case of repeat bankruptcy.
The State can't "print" more land, either, but land values are still subject to the whims of the State and statists.
I'm clearly not educated enough to discuss this subject at the level necessary to be a worthy debate or discussion partner. Perhaps I should lend you my "the Great"!
On the contrary, M. the Great!, you are most worthy, imo, and to prove it consider that I, with all my "education" and "greatness" deigned to engage in the first place!
You keep "the Great." It suits you, and I couldn't afford it anyway, especially if valued in a non-fiat currency.
I know very little about gold. How much do transaction and inventory (security) costs affect gold’s liquidity? Also, is there much concern over counterfeit gold? I could buy ten one-ounce eagles, and if just one was counterfeit, I’d be out a couple grand. Then there’s numismatic versus bullion—can the gov’t take away my bullion? Must I register the purchase?
While it is theoretically possible to make counterfeits, Ive been in the business for 35 years and have never seen one. Stick with coins from national mints like American Gold Eagles or Canadian Maple leafs, etc purchased from the big bullion houses like apmex or CNI ....and you will be fine. No registration needed. Steer clear of the numismatic gold because you will be paying a "collector" premium over just the gold value - until you are familiar with that market, best to just stay away.
Thanks for the clarification. Regarding numismatics, I guess I’m a little paranoid about Roosevelt’s Executive Order 6102 in 1933. Is CNI the same as goldbroker.com?
I am reliably told that this is now all Trump's fault, including the covid war crimes. I don't remember Trump doing any of the things the Washington Post said he did, but I don't understand subjective reality very well.
Two ways the last 2+ years have changed me. I never used to care about politics or finance (outside of how it directly affected me). That's no longer the case. Now I feel like I could explain micro and macroeconomics and global politics at the high school level.
Yep! The revelations I had during the Ron Paul campaigns (he LOVED to talk monetary policy) made me do a 180 about how I thought about money and savings. And I didn't want to drag the article out with more boring blah blah, but another insidious 'feature' of the fiat system is that there's always money for war when the printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
I think "stupidity caused by several generations of good fortune" (is there a Chinese character for that? Or an Inuit word?) is responsible for many of the things we see going on in the U.S. right now, including our general financial illiteracy. Can we come up with a catchy yard sign? Debt is real? Inflation matters? Or is receiving "free" money and low interest rates a human right?
The founders (and the initial states demanding the Bill Of Rights) gave us, for the first time in human history, a society/nation that explicitly put the individual above the group (i.e. interests, society-at-large, and, especially, the State itself) in hierarchical precedence. What they did not give us (as communicated so well by Mr. Franklin's famous warning, "...if you can keep it") was a way to educate the complacent.
Our task is to find an exit from the Tytler cycle. I am confident it will be done one day, but why not now: I'm not a very capable player in this endeavor I call for, but I sure want to be a witness. (Selfish of me, I know.)
Love that folks are buying up gold and silver, while others are bitcoining etc....me, keeping my $$ out of the big banks....still somewhat trusting my Credit Union.....things are just delighfully all over the map wrt money and value. I love America, unruly America.
Maybe tulips as currency again? as in old Holland, or rum?; for me, potato vodka! Can I please pay my heating bill with vodka? hmmmmmm...the barterers have returned.
One thing is certain: the people are more clever than the 'leaders' and will use whatever they have to in order to get by. Ask those from the former USSR.
I do make booze, but of a slightly milder type...minimal sugar wine and no- hopped beers....in my 3rd year.....I do keep a case of potato vodka on hand, as a staple for medicine making (liquid aspirin, for clots, liquid skullcap tincture, for tinnitus)...basic herbalism....and, now, for barter....I live in a very booze making section of the pacific northwest....many distillary's, and even the kombucha makers, also many here, have by-products from distillation that they then distill further to alcohol....why, it just flows from the tap here....!
Jacquelyn I would love to learn how to make my own alcohol at home; my paternal grand parents used to make their own anis infused alcohol from grapes called Arak in Lebanon, also cold pressed their own olive oil and made soap with the oil pomace and rose and orange flower hydrosols among many other things, their ability of being self sufficient in so many ways is something that I’ve always admired and dream of being able to achieve someday; all these skills were second nature to my grandparents on both side of my family and to some extend my parents now have to rely on some of that knowledge to be able to survive in Venezuela where electricity and water services are not a daily guarantee anymore. I purchased quite a few books on herbalism and also follow a few herbalist’s blogs to try and learn as much as I can, it is a very extensive subject but one that I find so fascinating!
Winny-thanks for the description of the things your grandparents made.....I knew one Lebanese family in my youth, (Detroit area) and they were definitely special people, and owned the Ryba's fudge on Mackinac Island in the UP of Michigan....old world for sure...and a bit more gentle than most....as for the wine, I have learned alot these last 3 years, that I can summarize quickly....
1. people with fruit trees usu. too much fruit-you are their friend.
freshly fallen fruit on the ground is fair game, make piles of old to help you see the new stuff. Again, free booze on trees.
2. most people have trouble lifting a 5 gallon carboy that is filled, (even plastic) so I use 3 gallon carboys of plastic or glass.
3. books...Sacred Herbal Healing Beers, Buhner. Brew Beer like a Yeti. And this one from the 1970s-How to make Wine In your own Kitchen by Mettja C Roates (Alibris, $30)....this was my first book, in tatters now, and you can see it here for free as well ..https://archive.org/details/howtomakewineiny00roat/mode/2up ..this is the book your grandma could have written, and she uses more sugar than I would, but it's a grand book...simple simple ...
Speaking of gold v. bitcoin, I understand how gold is a store of value (or unit of value as Ron Paul puts it). Not sure how or if bitcoin is a store of value. I see it like any other investment bought with fiat currency, subject to its own bulls and bear markets.
The real value of bitcoin is that it allows you to transfer wealth without somebody else's permission. It's not a traditional store of value (IMO) but its characteristics make it valuable enough to the market to have SOME value....though the rising price of bitcoin has to more to do with the devaluation of the dollar....which we expect to continue.
Is this not our puppet government crashing our economy to bits - like the other institutions - to foment / necessitate a “dire need” to implement cryptocurrency, available only on your wondrous smartphone? Is this not going to create a “thank you benevolent master” demand for UBI?
I hope it doesn't sound condescending, but this is the type of topic for which I've been waiting from you. I have so many comments in agreement, but you've basically said it all, so sorry for this frivolous post.
Double-digit interest rates are impossible now. With $30T in debt, interest rates of 12.5% would require the FedGov to spend every dollar it collects in taxes on interest expense alone, leaving nothing for anything else. They've painted themselves into a corner with no way out.
I do not know how this will end, but I'm sure it's going to be VERY painful.
I was in Zim in 2018. First thing we did was have the Taxi driver drive around so we could find places to exchange dollars for these notes, and we had two duffel bags of money for a few hundred dollars. Wonderful people, and unlike SA, totally safe.
Note: This is written from the viewpoint of Austrian economics, which many people with very impressive-sounding degrees will tell you is wildly wrong. If you read some of the links interspersed throughout the links, you can hear from the 'experts' on the other side (they're the ones saying there'll be no inflation just because we printed a bunch of cash).
https://mises.org/what-austrian-economics
Here are a couple examples:
Feb 2021 “That is what I think is the big concern right now, the unanchoring of inflation expectations. An important element in inflation are wages and people getting higher wages during a time of still very high unemployment and still a lot of slack in the economy,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“That would be a sign that an inflation process has begun, but we see no indication of that whatsoever. What we see is the perception of inflation being fueled by energy prices.”
----------------------------------------
(March 2021) Is Inflation Coming? Hell, No
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2021/03/30/is-inflation-coming-hell-no/?sh=605d2d91402a
---------------------------------------
(May 2021) “I don’t believe that inflation will be an issue. But if it becomes an issue, we have tools to address it,” Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “It’s spread out quite evenly over eight to 10 years. So, the boost to demand is moderate,” she said of the proposed spending.
--------------------------------------
Sounds like a gaggle of covid experts explaining how the rules make the difference and not
seasonality.
April 2021
“We remain positive but once we get to the end of this year and early next year, and we’ve worked through the supply chain bottlenecks and demand has normalized, as the economy opened up, we don’t think it’s a sustained source of inflation over the medium term,” said Blerina Uruci, senior U.S. economist at Barclays.
Uruci expects core inflation to reach 2.3% by May but then it could be below 2% in the second half of the year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/market-braces-for-key-inflation-report-tuesday-that-may-test-the-feds-mettle.html
FAIL
And these people are all still in charge.
(Coincindentally typing this while wearing my "Hayek Rocks!" ((in the KISS font)) t-shirt 😄)
Being short dollars and long real assets and commodities is absolutely the smartest move at the moment, but we also took a look at our crystal ball the end of 2021 and decided to short the markets. It's been a bumpy ride, but a profitable one so far. It definitely takes nerves of steel to be a bear, even when the signs are all there.
Just own Large Cap US and Foreign stocks. It will accomplish the same thing. Large Corporations could care less about inflation. They raised their prices while their debt and other liabilities become less expensive to honor.
I’m from Venezuela originally, moved to Houston on Dec 2000 and became an American citizen in 2013. I’m very grateful to this beautiful country and its people for the opportunity to work and raise our children here. I love the USA as much as I love Venezuela. What’s going on right now here is heart braking to say the least, all I can say is we have to fight it, there’s no other option, we can’t not let it happen here. I’ve been very vocal about it to all our friends, I’ve explained how I noticed that our schools here push the romanticizing of socialism every where they can, how our youth is being brain washed in academia right in front of us all while we ourselves finance this none sense. I just can’t believe it is happening all over again and that there’s still people with their heads buried in the sand worrying about the wrong stuff.
Your article is spot on!👍🏻
Thank you very much! Voices like yours are so important because most Americans have no idea what living under such a system is like. And I'm afraid by the time they figure it all out, it will be too late!
Trust me, I won’t shut up about it, my kids are well aware of the propaganda because we explained to them as soon as they could understand the concept of what government, politics and social issues are, and of course as much as they allowed us to talk about it, you know how much young people are bored by such topics, and who can blame them right? But that didn’t stopped my husband and I from talking to our children.
I have hopes, this is a great country with plenty of good people even though sometimes we feel that things are going in the complete wrong direction, at least we’re talking about it here, and I think more and more people are slowly but surely waking up, let’s keep our chin up and keep on doing everything we can
Thank you for being my fellow citizen, M. Winny A. You, and especially what you say about your children, give me hope. I have not attempted to counter the Socialist propaganda/indoctrination that publicly (and daily) bathes my own three teen-agers, but inculcated instead a healthy skepticism of all things, and an attitude of free-thinking based on a constant INDEPENDENT search for the essence of things. I know that, at this stage in their lives, my politics would bore them, and, worse, my manner would come across as its own propaganda. When all is said and done, they will have to choose for themselves, and I fear I would just get in the way. But they ARE skeptical, so I have hope and confidence..
Welcome to the USA, 🇺🇸 and please keep speaking up.
Don’t a lot of Venezuela’s problems stem from the US oil embargo?
The only big issue you missed is that, without any fanfare, the Fed has been buying debt at a rate pf $1.2B every month. It is prohibited by law from buying US debt directly from the US Treasury, so with a wink and a nod it waits until the debt is bought by someone else. THEN it buys the US Debt. This assures the market that there is a ready and willing buyer for any debt the US creates. Neat trick if you can get away with it.
This works safely because we have the world's reserve currency, which has no competitors . . . yet. I mean, who would trade the dollar for the Swiss Franc, the British Pound, the Chinese Yuan, the Euro or Bitcoin? Or a basket of the foregoing?
Very great point. We have the reserve currency....for now. But what if all those suckers decide they're tired of holding dollars to buy oil? The flood of dollars back into 'our' economy would be extremely dangerous.
Or the Ruble?
I understand the USD is on the brink of losing its reserve currency status, as the petrodollar trade was refused by Saudi Arabia last year in lieu of BRICS currency. Say it isn’t so.
It’s so. Add another downgrade and you have the whole picture
It is indeed a boring subject, wish more people understood what the financial elite are doing to us plebes. Personally, I have opted out of inflation .... https://bagholder.substack.com/p/inflation-opting-out
This is a super great piece and basically describes what I realized during the Ron Paul days.
I cannot recommend Mytwocent$ enough.
"...had to cash in 42.5 ounces of Gold (at $288)...35 ounces of the pure (at $415)...13.5 oz of Gold (@$1400/oz)...12.1 oz of Gold for me (@$1725/oz)."
"Notice how the car price in dollars is always higher, while the car price in Gold ounces is always lower."
No, *not* always with respect to the gold. Just always in your particular circumstances.
The validity of your argument depends on the price of gold going up perpetually. What if all those gold prices had happened in reverse order? (See: Johnny Carson and Ed McMahon) Every one of your cars would've cost more in gold than the previous one.
Plenty of ups and downs in the price of gold (see? even gold has a *price* measured in...dollars) over the past 100 years in this chart:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
Actually, the validity of my argument depends on the devaluation of the dollar - which, in today's environment is a given....are there ups & downs in gold price, sure, can gold go down over weeks, months, years - yes absolutely. But when you start talking decades & centuries, gold will always win against paper.... compare that hundred year chart of gold you linked to the hundred year chart of the dollar - they are not even in the same realm.
Indeed they're not in the same realm, but I wasn't defending the dollar, I was questioning the practical argument in defense of gold.
I don't expect to live centuries (or even one; neither will most of us). So the reality of the long-term value of gold doesn't matter nearly as much as the vagaries imposed on gold's value in the short-term, by government.
Very good MICRO-analysis, M. !Andrew the Great! (I should have added "the Great" to my middle name!), as far as it goes.
However, the long-term price of gold, measured in FIAT DOLLARS (this is key), is sure to increase in the long-run (NOT necessarily the short, of course), because Statists are sure to de-value their debt (i.e. print FIAT DOLLARS) on their whims.
Second, that the price of gold is today measured in dollars is of NO consequence. An economic system using ounces of gold as the so-called reserve currency could easily be imagined, because that is de facto what we had until we stopped pegging the value of the dollar to gold itself (i.e. the gold standard), just so we could "save the poor" (read: gouge the poor) by inflating the supply of FIAT DOLLARS. Yes, Statist logic is circular.
Finally, and most importantly, forget everything I just said, and remember the MACRO:
The State can't print more gold, making GOLD the perfect store of value for we anti-Statists, since it retards the debt-financed growth of the State relative to the wealth-producing private sector. The dollar symbol was chosen because it is an upper-case U super-imposed over an upper-case S, for "U.S. Dollar." We should have skipped using the word "dollar," and gone straight to "ozG" (no convenient symbol, see?). That way, the Federal govt. would have had to borrow something REAL instead of FIAT, and therefore creatable on a whim. The State steals ("borrows") from us without our consent, and the ignorant among us not only raise no fuss, they stick their slavish hands out , palms up to the State, and the State "magnanimously" "gives" to the ignorant that which the State stole from them in the first place. The ignorant and complacent are today legion, and the State has taken advantage.
Alternatively, a fiat currency COULD work, but ONLY if the People could tell the State that it CANNOT BORROW OR PRINT ANYTHING. The Statists (both inside and out of the State) would not then devalue their own fiat money (the money in their OWN INDIVIDUAL pockets) by ACTUALLY printing more of it. The supply of currency (i.e. the notes, backed by REAL gold printed for greasing the commerce, gold being rather heavier than paper) could then be set to the population, ZERO-ING price inflation (currency deflation) forever in one fell swoop. Of course, actual things (like cars) would go up and down in value as they should, according to supply and demand, setting a market price (signal to producers/sellers/corporations) and informing the two parties to a trade, whose sole judgment is key, instead of the third-party State having any say. Banks, SOLELY IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, would then lend (print) notes ONLY at their owner's risk, and not the general public's. Obviously, there could be NO public bail-outs (including of banks), no matter the size of the bankrupt entity, and personal bankruptcy should be handled by future attachments, private charity, and insurance, a low level of which might be required by law in the case of repeat bankruptcy.
Just as things should have been all along.
Sorry for the Caps. I am NOT yelling; I am emphasizing. Consider them to be italicized. (Once again, would some kind soul teach me THAT trick?)
The State can't "print" more land, either, but land values are still subject to the whims of the State and statists.
I'm clearly not educated enough to discuss this subject at the level necessary to be a worthy debate or discussion partner. Perhaps I should lend you my "the Great"!
For an ounce or two of gold...or land.
On the contrary, M. the Great!, you are most worthy, imo, and to prove it consider that I, with all my "education" and "greatness" deigned to engage in the first place!
You keep "the Great." It suits you, and I couldn't afford it anyway, especially if valued in a non-fiat currency.
Oh, and keep posting, too.
I know very little about gold. How much do transaction and inventory (security) costs affect gold’s liquidity? Also, is there much concern over counterfeit gold? I could buy ten one-ounce eagles, and if just one was counterfeit, I’d be out a couple grand. Then there’s numismatic versus bullion—can the gov’t take away my bullion? Must I register the purchase?
While it is theoretically possible to make counterfeits, Ive been in the business for 35 years and have never seen one. Stick with coins from national mints like American Gold Eagles or Canadian Maple leafs, etc purchased from the big bullion houses like apmex or CNI ....and you will be fine. No registration needed. Steer clear of the numismatic gold because you will be paying a "collector" premium over just the gold value - until you are familiar with that market, best to just stay away.
Thanks for the clarification. Regarding numismatics, I guess I’m a little paranoid about Roosevelt’s Executive Order 6102 in 1933. Is CNI the same as goldbroker.com?
golddealer.com
Thanks!
I am reliably told that this is now all Trump's fault, including the covid war crimes. I don't remember Trump doing any of the things the Washington Post said he did, but I don't understand subjective reality very well.
guttermouth.substack.com
Two ways the last 2+ years have changed me. I never used to care about politics or finance (outside of how it directly affected me). That's no longer the case. Now I feel like I could explain micro and macroeconomics and global politics at the high school level.
Yep! The revelations I had during the Ron Paul campaigns (he LOVED to talk monetary policy) made me do a 180 about how I thought about money and savings. And I didn't want to drag the article out with more boring blah blah, but another insidious 'feature' of the fiat system is that there's always money for war when the printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
I highly recommend reading "The Creature from Jekyll Island"
Eye opening!
You mean re-reading? Great idea :)
Some books require multiple readings over a lifetime. 🙂
I think "stupidity caused by several generations of good fortune" (is there a Chinese character for that? Or an Inuit word?) is responsible for many of the things we see going on in the U.S. right now, including our general financial illiteracy. Can we come up with a catchy yard sign? Debt is real? Inflation matters? Or is receiving "free" money and low interest rates a human right?
What I call the "Alexander Tytler cycle."
The founders (and the initial states demanding the Bill Of Rights) gave us, for the first time in human history, a society/nation that explicitly put the individual above the group (i.e. interests, society-at-large, and, especially, the State itself) in hierarchical precedence. What they did not give us (as communicated so well by Mr. Franklin's famous warning, "...if you can keep it") was a way to educate the complacent.
Our task is to find an exit from the Tytler cycle. I am confident it will be done one day, but why not now: I'm not a very capable player in this endeavor I call for, but I sure want to be a witness. (Selfish of me, I know.)
Ducktales, LOL. This would be labeled dangerous misinformation today.
Sweet Vidalia onions are now $2.49/lb and some are rotten inside. They've always been 99 cents since I can remember.
Love that folks are buying up gold and silver, while others are bitcoining etc....me, keeping my $$ out of the big banks....still somewhat trusting my Credit Union.....things are just delighfully all over the map wrt money and value. I love America, unruly America.
Yep! The money printing and the inflation is coming, so you better have a plan to maneuver through it.
Remember the old saying "I bet you dollars to donuts?" now inflation has turned that around so you'd have to be betting donuts against dollars.
Maybe tulips as currency again? as in old Holland, or rum?; for me, potato vodka! Can I please pay my heating bill with vodka? hmmmmmm...the barterers have returned.
One thing is certain: the people are more clever than the 'leaders' and will use whatever they have to in order to get by. Ask those from the former USSR.
You distill your own vodka? I'll barter with you!
I do make booze, but of a slightly milder type...minimal sugar wine and no- hopped beers....in my 3rd year.....I do keep a case of potato vodka on hand, as a staple for medicine making (liquid aspirin, for clots, liquid skullcap tincture, for tinnitus)...basic herbalism....and, now, for barter....I live in a very booze making section of the pacific northwest....many distillary's, and even the kombucha makers, also many here, have by-products from distillation that they then distill further to alcohol....why, it just flows from the tap here....!
to add, aspirin = willow bark and or birch bark in solution.
Jacquelyn I would love to learn how to make my own alcohol at home; my paternal grand parents used to make their own anis infused alcohol from grapes called Arak in Lebanon, also cold pressed their own olive oil and made soap with the oil pomace and rose and orange flower hydrosols among many other things, their ability of being self sufficient in so many ways is something that I’ve always admired and dream of being able to achieve someday; all these skills were second nature to my grandparents on both side of my family and to some extend my parents now have to rely on some of that knowledge to be able to survive in Venezuela where electricity and water services are not a daily guarantee anymore. I purchased quite a few books on herbalism and also follow a few herbalist’s blogs to try and learn as much as I can, it is a very extensive subject but one that I find so fascinating!
Winny-thanks for the description of the things your grandparents made.....I knew one Lebanese family in my youth, (Detroit area) and they were definitely special people, and owned the Ryba's fudge on Mackinac Island in the UP of Michigan....old world for sure...and a bit more gentle than most....as for the wine, I have learned alot these last 3 years, that I can summarize quickly....
1. people with fruit trees usu. too much fruit-you are their friend.
freshly fallen fruit on the ground is fair game, make piles of old to help you see the new stuff. Again, free booze on trees.
2. most people have trouble lifting a 5 gallon carboy that is filled, (even plastic) so I use 3 gallon carboys of plastic or glass.
3. books...Sacred Herbal Healing Beers, Buhner. Brew Beer like a Yeti. And this one from the 1970s-How to make Wine In your own Kitchen by Mettja C Roates (Alibris, $30)....this was my first book, in tatters now, and you can see it here for free as well ..https://archive.org/details/howtomakewineiny00roat/mode/2up ..this is the book your grandma could have written, and she uses more sugar than I would, but it's a grand book...simple simple ...
best
Speaking of gold v. bitcoin, I understand how gold is a store of value (or unit of value as Ron Paul puts it). Not sure how or if bitcoin is a store of value. I see it like any other investment bought with fiat currency, subject to its own bulls and bear markets.
The real value of bitcoin is that it allows you to transfer wealth without somebody else's permission. It's not a traditional store of value (IMO) but its characteristics make it valuable enough to the market to have SOME value....though the rising price of bitcoin has to more to do with the devaluation of the dollar....which we expect to continue.
One maxim of building wealth is never invest in what you don’t understand. I have much to learn it appears.
Is this not our puppet government crashing our economy to bits - like the other institutions - to foment / necessitate a “dire need” to implement cryptocurrency, available only on your wondrous smartphone? Is this not going to create a “thank you benevolent master” demand for UBI?
Don’t give up on those shot passports just yet.
Can't Build Back Better if everything's Still Standing.
That's why BBB portends a whole lot of destruction.
this is driven by the WEF (SPECTRE)
The system was in trouble before covid even happened, but covid was the excuse to print trillions and trillions to paper over the problems.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4293900-qe4-begins-fed-printed-extra-161_7-billion-last-week
QE4 Begins - Fed Printed An Extra $161.7 Billion Last Week
Sep. 27, 2019
Thank you, M. SimulationCommander.
I hope it doesn't sound condescending, but this is the type of topic for which I've been waiting from you. I have so many comments in agreement, but you've basically said it all, so sorry for this frivolous post.
Thank you! I know not a lot of people get excited about monetary policy but the issue is so important I had to say something :)
Yeah, well, keep saying things. You are good for my peace of mind, to say the least.
Double-digit interest rates are impossible now. With $30T in debt, interest rates of 12.5% would require the FedGov to spend every dollar it collects in taxes on interest expense alone, leaving nothing for anything else. They've painted themselves into a corner with no way out.
I do not know how this will end, but I'm sure it's going to be VERY painful.
Yep! But continuing on this path is also impossible. Something's gotta give.
Is there any problem that Puddin' Joe can't make worse?
I was in Zim in 2018. First thing we did was have the Taxi driver drive around so we could find places to exchange dollars for these notes, and we had two duffel bags of money for a few hundred dollars. Wonderful people, and unlike SA, totally safe.